Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
